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    USA v. YTEM, RONALD M.
    
    In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    
    No. 00-3032
    
    United States of America,
    
    Plaintiff-Appellee,
    
    v.
    
    Ronald Magsino Ytem,
    
    Defendant-Appellant.
    
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Northern District of Illinois, Eastern Division.
    No. 99 CR 721--James F. Holderman, Judge.
    
    Argued January 19, 2001--Decided June 25, 2001
    
    
      Before Flaum, Chief Judge, and Posner and
    Ripple, Circuit Judges.
    
      Posner, Circuit Judge.  The defendant, an
    accountant who worked in Illinois,
    embezzled funds of his employer by
    writing, without authorization, three
    checks to himself aggregating more than
    $135,000 during a two-month period and
    depositing them in his personal account
    in a Maryland bank that happens to have
    offices only in that state and in
    Virginia. The locations of his place of
    work and of his bank are relevant because
    he was charged not only with willful
    failure to report his embezzled income on
    his federal income tax return for the
    year in which he received that income, 26
    U.S.C. sec. 7206(1), but also with having
    transported money obtained by fraud
    across state lines. 18 U.S.C. sec. 2314.
    He was convicted of both crimes, was
    sentenced to a total of 27 months in
    prison, and appeals, challenging only the
    sufficiency of the evidence to convict
    him.
    
      The appeal bespeaks a deep or perhaps
    desperate misunderstanding of the law of
    evidence, especially with regard to the
    second charge. It is conceded that all
    the government had to show was that the
    defendant had caused the checks to be
    transported across state lines. It is
    also conceded that the checks indeed
    ended up in either a Maryland or a
    Virginia office of the bank in which they
    were deposited and that one of the checks
    was accompanied by a note to the bank in
    the defendant's handwriting telling the
    bank what to do with the check.
    Presumably the defendant mailed the
    checks (and the accompanying note) to the
    bank but there is no direct evidence of
    this; that is, no one testified to having
    seen the defendant mail these items and
    he does not admit having mailed them. He
    argues that therefore he cannot be proved
    guilty beyond a reasonable doubt of
    having caused them to be transported
    across state lines.
    
      He admits that certainty is not required
    to establish guilt beyond a reasonable
    doubt, that a conviction based on
    fingerprint evidence for example cannot
    be overturned by pointing out that there
    is some minute probability of erroneous
    fingerprint identification. But he
    insists that a conviction can survive
    remote doubts about its correctness only
    when it is based on computed
    probabilities; common sense probabilities
    will not do. That is wrong. Common sense
    as well as science is a source of
    justified true beliefs, including
    warranted confidence that certain
    probabilities though unquantified are so
    slight that they do not create reasonable
    doubt. Often this confidence is formed by
    comparing hypotheses and sensibly
    adjudging one to be vastly more probable
    than the others, even taken all together.
    This case illustrates that routine and
    unexceptionable reasoning process nicely.
    While it is conceivable that the
    defendant did not cause the checks to end
    up in Maryland or Virginia--maybe after
    writing them and the accompanying note he
    changed his mind and threw them in the
    wastepaper basket in his office and the
    cleaning people picked them up after
    hours and mailed them to the defendant's
    bank--this hypothesis is so unlikely to
    be true that in the absence of any
    evidence in support of it (and there is
    none) a rational jury would be entirely
    justified in dismissing the probability
    of its being true as minute in relation
    to the probability that the defendant
    himself caused the checks to end up where
    they did; indeed a jury would be
    irrational to conclude otherwise.
    
      The situation is a little more doubtful
    with respect to the defendant's
    conviction for willfully filing a false
    return. To be convicted of that offense
    he had to be proved to have known (at
    least if he made an issue of his
    knowledge) that illegal income is taxable
    and so his income from embezzlement
    should have been reported, 26 U.S.C. sec.
    7206(1); Cheek v. United States, 498 U.S.
    192, 201-02 (1991); United States v.
    Kontny, 238 F.3d 815, 820 (7th Cir.
    2001); United States v. Peters, 153 F.3d
    445, 461 (7th Cir. 1998); United States
    v. Pirro, 212 F.3d 86, 89 (2d Cir. 2000),
    since otherwise the return though false
    would not be willfully so; and again
    there is no direct evidence that he knew-
    -evidence that could only have taken the
    form of an admission by him, for that is
    the only form that direct evidence of a
    person's state of mind can take. (There
    are no eyewitnesses to the mental
    contents of a person's head, as opposed
    to external phenomena, such as the
    placing of a letter in a mailbox.) But
    the circumstantial evidence was
    convincing, and the absence of direct
    evidence therefore no bar to conviction.
    E.g., Spies v. United States, 317 U.S.
    492, 499-500 (1943); United States v.
    Paneras, 222 F.3d 406, 410 (7th Cir.
    2000); United States v. Robinson, 177
    F.3d 643, 648 (7th Cir. 1999); United
    States v. Townsend, 924 F.2d 1385, 1390
    (7th Cir. 1991); United States v. Radtke,
    799 F.2d 298, 302 (7th Cir. 1986); United
    States v. Guidry, 199 F.3d 1150, 1156-58
    (10th Cir. 1999). We are, however,
    doubtful about the validity of the
    government's argument, based on the case
    just cited, id. at 1157, that the
    defendant's efforts (which incidentally
    were rather feeble) to conceal the
    embezzlement was evidence that he knew
    that embezzled income is taxable. For he
    would have had an incentive to conceal
    the embezzlement in order to save his job
    and avoid prosecution for embezzlement,
    even if embezzled income were tax-free.
    But there is plenty of other
    circumstantial evidence of the
    defendant's intent to avoid tax. As in
    Guidry, the defendant was an accountant,
    moreover an experienced one; he
    personally prepared the fraudulent tax
    return; the sums taken were large (they
    amounted to 75 percent of his total
    income during the period of the
    embezzlement), and (the weakest bit of
    evidence) he used the money for ordinary
    expenses, the sort of thing people
    usually defray from taxable income.
    Furthermore, the fact that illegal income
    is taxable is widely known, even among
    lay people. Everyone knows that Al
    Capone, for example, was nailed for
    income-tax evasion, not for the
    bootlegging, loan-sharking, extortion,
    and prostitution that generated the
    income. Accountants know better than
    anyone except tax lawyers that illegal
    income is taxable.
    
      It is possible nevertheless that this
    experienced accountant who prepared his
    own tax return thought that illegal
    income was tax exempt, but it is too
    remote a possibility to compel an
    acquittal, at least in the absence of any
    evidence that might make it plausible,
    such as that the defendant suffered from
    some psychiatric disorder that had
    deranged his knowledge of elementary tax
    law or his ability to use that knowledge
    in filling out his income tax return.
    Anything is possible; there are no
    metaphysical certainties accessible to
    human reason; but a merely metaphysical
    doubt (for example, doubt whether the
    external world is real, rather than being
    merely a dream) is not a reasonable doubt
    for purposes of the criminal law. See,
    e.g., Victor v. Nebraska, 511 U.S. 1, 13-
    17 (1994) ("absolute certainty is
    unattainable in matters relating to human
    affairs," id. at 13); United States v.
    Williams, 216 F.3d 1099, 1103-04 (D.C.
    Cir. 2000); United States v. Guidry,
    supra, 199 F.3d at 1157-58; United States
    v. Delpit, 94 F.3d 1134, 1148 (8th Cir.
    1996); United States v. Hall, 854 F.2d
    1036, 1044 (7th Cir. 1988) (concurring
    opinion); see also Holland v. United
    States, 348 U.S. 121, 139-40 (1954). If
    it were, no one could be convicted. As
    with the transportation of the checks, so
    with the charge of willfully filing a
    false return, the jury had to choose
    between two hypotheses. One was that the
    defendant knew that embezzled income is
    taxable. The other was that he thought
    embezzled income tax-free--a token of the
    government's affection for embezzlers and
    other thieves. The former hypothesis was,
    in the circumstances, far more likely
    than the latter. That is enough to compel
    affirmance. There is no suggestion that
    the jury was improperly instructed or
    that it might have been misled by any
    error committed at the trial.
    
    Affirmed.
    
    

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