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    PUBLISHED
    

    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    

    FOR THE FOURTH CIRCUIT
    

    ------------------------------------------------*

    THE SCOTTS COMPANY,

    Plaintiff-Appellee,

    v.

    UNITED INDUSTRIES CORPORATION,No. 02-1738
    

    Defendant-Appellant,

    and

    PURSELL INDUSTRIES,

    Defendant.

    ------------------------------------------------*

    ------------------------------------------------*

    THE SCOTTS COMPANY,

    Plaintiff-Appellee,

    v.

    PURSELL INDUSTRIES,No. 02-1739
    

    Defendant-Appellant,

    and

    UNITED INDUSTRIES CORPORATION,

    Defendant.

    ------------------------------------------------*

    ------------------------------------------------*

    THE SCOTTS COMPANY,

    Plaintiff-Appellee,

    v.

    UNITED INDUSTRIES CORPORATION,No. 02-1775
    

    Defendant-Appellant,

    and

    PURSELL INDUSTRIES,

    Defendant.

    ------------------------------------------------*

    Appeals from the United States District Court
    for the Eastern District of Virginia, at Richmond.
    James R. Spencer, District Judge.
    (CA-02-240)
    

    Argued: October 31, 2002
    

    Decided: December 23, 2002
    

    Before TRAXLER, KING, and GREGORY, Circuit Judges.
    

    ____________________________________________________________

    Vacated and remanded by published opinion. Judge Traxler wrote the

    opinion, in which Judge King and Judge Gregory joined.

    ____________________________________________________________

    COUNSEL
    

    ARGUED: Dudley William Von Holt, THOMPSON COBURN,

    L.L.P., St. Louis, Missouri, for Appellant. Jeffrey Stuart Sutton,

    JONES, DAY, REAVIS & POGUE, Columbus, Ohio, for Appellee.

    ON BRIEF: Mark Sableman, James W. Erwin, THOMPSON

    COBURN, L.L.P., St. Louis, Missouri; Dabney J. Carr, IV, TROUT-

    MAN SANDERS, Richmond, Virginia, for Appellant United; Robert

    M. Tyler, MCGUIRE WOODS, L.L.P., Richmond, Virginia, for

    2
    

    Appellant Pursell. Michael Y. Scudder, Jr., JONES, DAY, REAVIS

    & POGUE, Columbus, Ohio; Robert M. Rolfe, Stephen P. Demm,

    John Gary Maynard, III, Kimberley A. Isbell, HUNTON & WIL-

    LIAMS, Richmond, Virginia, for Appellee.

    ____________________________________________________________

    OPINION
    

    TRAXLER, Circuit Judge:

    The Scotts Company sued Pursell Industries and United Industries

    (together, the "defendants"), claiming that the packaging of the defen-

    dants' "Vigoro" brand crabgrass-control product conveyed certain

    false messages to consumers. The district court granted a preliminary

    injunction in favor of Scotts. This court granted the defendants'

    motion for a stay of the injunction pending appeal and expedited the

    appeal. We now vacate the district court's grant of a preliminary

    injunction and remand for further proceedings on Scotts' request for

    a permanent injunction.

    I.
    

    Generally speaking, chemical crabgrass-control products are most

    effective when applied to "pre-emergent" crabgrass-crabgrass that

    has yet to sprout. The products are also effective on early "post-

    emergent" crabgrass, but are ineffective when applied to mature crab-

    grass plants. Vigoro, the defendants' product, and Scotts' product

    ("Halts") offer some level of post-emergence control, if applied no

    later than about four weeks after germination. Scotts, however, con-

    tends that the Vigoro package misleads consumers into believing that

    Vigoro can kill mature crabgrass.

    In 1999, Scotts filed a Lanham Act false advertising claim against

    Pursell based on the Vigoro package. At that time, the Vigoro pack-

    age included what the parties refer to as the "crabgrass buster" logo-

    a cartoon of a crabgrass plant with a sinister face, surrounded by the

    familiar red circle with a slash through it. This graphic was located

    directly above a text block that stated (in all capital letters) "pre &

    post emergence control of crabgrass." The parties settled the 1999

    3
    

    action and entered into a settlement agreement under which Pursell

    admitted no liability but agreed not to use the crabgrass buster logo

    or a similar logo in close proximity to any claim that Vigoro controls

    or suppresses post-emergent crabgrass.

    In March 2000, Scotts filed another action against Pursell. In that

    action, Scotts contended that Pursell breached the 1999 settlement

    agreement by including the crabgrass buster logo in its promotional

    materials. Scotts also asserted a new false advertising claim based on

    a time-line graphic included in those promotional materials which

    suggested that Vigoro was the only product with any post-emergence

    effect on crabgrass. The district court concluded that Pursell had

    breached the 1999 settlement agreement by using the crabgrass buster

    logo and that the time-line graphic was false because it wrongly sug-

    gested that Scotts' product had no post-emergence effect. The court

    therefore entered a preliminary injunction requiring Pursell to remove

    the offending logo and time-line from the promotional materials. The

    parties entered into another settlement agreement under which Pursell

    again admitted no liability.

    In December 2001, United Industries purchased the Vigoro product

    line from Pursell. Pursuant to their agreement, Pursell continues to

    manufacture the product, and United distributes it exclusively to

    Home Depot stores.

    For the 2002 spring selling season, the defendants introduced new

    packaging for the Vigoro products. A picture of lush green lawn occu-

    pies approximately a third of the bag, and the product name appears

    in the middle of that picture as follows (with some effort being made

    to approximate the relative font sizes):

    VIGORO
    

    ULTRA TURF
    

    PRE-EMERGENT
    

    Crabgrass Control
    

    4
    

    plus Fertilizer
    

    30-3-4
    

    Centered on a bright blue background below this text and the lush-

    lawn picture is the following (again, with some attempt to show the

    relative font size):

    Greens in 72 HOURS
    

    Promotes Thick, Green Growth
    

    and Stops Crabgrass and Many
    

    Other Grassy & Broadleaf
    

    Weeds Before They Start.
    

    To the left of this text block is the graphic at issue in this case: a real-

    istic rendering of a mature crabgrass plant positioned directly above

    the following text:

    Prevents
    Crabgrass up to
    4 WEEKS
    After Germination
    

    A small white cross by the crabgrass illustration leads to a disclaimer

    on the bottom of the front of the package, printed in dark blue or

    black ink and in very small type, which states, "Crabgrass image for

    illustration only as this product is for pre- and early post emergent

    control and does not control mature plants."

    The crabgrass illustration on the Vigoro package is not unlike that

    used by Scotts on its Halts packages, and the Halts packages likewise

    claim some post-emergent effect. Scotts' post-emergent claim

    ("Delivers pre- and early post-emergent crabgrass control") is the first

    of three "bullet points" in a vertical column on the lower left side of

    the package front; the crabgrass illustration is placed just beside this

    column, in the middle of the lower part of the package. A disclaimer

    on the back of the Scotts' product states that "This product controls

    5
    

    crabgrass in its early stages of growth. This product does not control

    mature crabgrass and other existing weeds."

    Not satisfied by the revisions to the Vigoro packaging, Scotts filed

    this action in the Eastern District of Virginia, where both the 1999

    and the 2000 actions had been filed. Scotts asserted false advertising

    claims under the Lanham Act, see 15 U.S.C.A. § 1125(a)(1)(B) (West

    1998), claiming that the revamped packaging, by using the illustration

    of a mature crabgrass plant, falsely suggested that Vigoro could kill

    mature crabgrass.1

    Scotts moved for a preliminary injunction and supported its motion

    with evidence of consumer confusion derived from two focus group

    discussions and face-to-face interviews with 40 shoppers selected

    from a shopping mall in Richmond. Although the district court ques-

    tioned the persuasiveness of some of Scotts' evidence, the court con-

    cluded that Scotts had shown some evidence of consumer confusion,

    that Scotts had presented at least a triable issue on its false advertising

    claim, and that the balance of the harms favored Scotts. On July 2,

    2002, the district court granted Scotts' request for a preliminary

    injunction and ordered the defendants to change the Vigoro packaging

    and remove existing product from store shelves or place a sticker cov-

    ering the offending crabgrass graphic. The defendants thereafter

    sought a stay of the injunction from the district court. At the hearing

    on that motion, the district court stated that the question of whether

    to issue the injunction had been a very close one and that the question

    of staying the injunction was even closer. On July 15, 2002, however,

    the district court denied the motion to stay the injunction, although the

    court did modify the injunction so that it would take effect on August

    30, 2002. The defendants appealed, and, as previously noted, we

    granted the defendants' motion to stay the injunction pending resolu-

    tion of this expedited appeal.

    ____________________________________________________________

    1 While Scotts also asserted state law claims in its complaint, the dis-

    trict court when granting the preliminary injunction focused only on the

    Lanham Act claims, and the parties likewise address only the Lanham

    Act claims in their appellate briefs. Any claims Scotts may have under

    state law, therefore, are not at issue in this appeal.

    6
    

    II.
    

    In this circuit, the entry of a preliminary injunction is governed by

    the four-part test set forth in Blackwelder Furniture Co. of Statesville,

    Inc. v. Seilig Mfg. Co., Inc., 550 F.2d 189 (4th Cir. 1977), which

    requires a court to consider "(1) the likelihood of irreparable harm to

    the plaintiff if the preliminary injunction is denied, (2) the likelihood

    of harm to the defendant if the requested relief is granted, (3) the like-

    lihood that the plaintiff will succeed on the merits, and (4) the public

    interest." Direx Israel, Ltd. v. Breakthrough Med. Corp., 952 F.2d

    802, 812 (4th Cir. 1991) (internal quotation marks omitted); see

    Blackwelder, 550 F.2d at 193-95.

    When deciding whether to grant a preliminary injunction, the court

    must first determine whether the plaintiff has made a strong showing

    of irreparable harm if the injunction is denied; if such a showing is

    made, the court must then balance the likelihood of harm to the plain-

    tiff against the likelihood of harm to the defendant. See Safety-Kleen,

    Inc. (Pinewood) v. Wyche, 274 F.3d 846, 859 (4th Cir. 2001); Direx,

    952 F.2d at 812. If the balance of the hardships "tips decidedly in

    favor of the plaintiff," Rum Creek Coal Sales, Inc. v. Caperton, 926

    F.2d 353, 359 (4th Cir. 1991) (internal quotation marks omitted), then

    typically it will "be enough that the plaintiff has raised questions

    going to the merits so serious, substantial, difficult and doubtful, as

    to make them fair ground for litigation and thus for more deliberate

    investigation," Blackwelder, 550 F.2d at 195 (internal quotation

    marks omitted). But if the balance of hardships is substantially equal

    as between the plaintiff and defendant, then "the probability of suc-

    cess begins to assume real significance, and interim relief is more

    likely to require a clear showing of a likelihood of success." Direx,

    952 F.2d at 808 (internal quotation marks omitted).2

    ____________________________________________________________

    2 Blackwelder's emphasis on the balancing of the harms rather than the

    likelihood of success has been criticized, even within this court, as incon-

    sistent with Supreme Court precedent. See Safety-Kleen, Inc. v. Wyche,

    274 F.3d 846, 868 (4th Cir. 2001) (Luttig, J., concurring) (arguing that

    Blackwelder "contravene[s] Supreme Court precedents by overvaluing

    the inquiry into the relative equities of granting and denying a requested

    injunction to an extent that essentially denies any value whatsoever to the

    inquiry into the likelihood of success on the merits" and "virtually elimi-

    7
    

    "We review the grant or denial of a preliminary injunction for

    abuse of discretion, recognizing that preliminary injunctions are

    extraordinary remedies involving the exercise of very far-reaching

    power to be granted only sparingly and in limited circumstances."

    MicroStrategy Inc. v. Motorola, Inc., 245 F.3d 335, 339 (4th Cir.

    2001) (internal quotation marks omitted). This standard "is not a rule

    of perfunctory appellate review but one of careful scrutiny." Direx,

    952 F.2d at 815.

    We begin by considering whether the district court erred when con-

    cluding that Scotts would suffer irreparable harm if an injunction

    were not issued. In this case, however, that inquiry is bound up with

    an inquiry into the likelihood that Scotts will prevail on its false

    advertising claims. By virtue of certain intricacies in the law govern-

    ing Lanham Act claims, some courts apply a presumption of irrepara-

    ble harm if the plaintiff has made a threshold showing as to the merits

    of his Lanham Act claim, and the district court here relied on such a

    presumption when concluding that Scotts would be irreparably

    harmed if the injunction were denied. See J.A. 698 ("Scotts need only

    demonstrate that the advertising at issue confuses consumers in order

    to satisfy the irreparable harm prong of the analysis."). Thus, because

    the balance-of-the-hardship question is intertwined with questions

    about the merits, our analysis of the balance-of-the-hardship question

    will first require a detour into the substance of Scotts' Lanham Act

    claims.

    A.
    

    The Lanham Act prohibits the "false or misleading description of

    fact, or false or misleading representation of fact, which . . . in com-

    ____________________________________________________________

    nate[s] altogether the inquiry into the likelihood of success on the mer-

    its"). In the course of their challenges to the preliminary injunction, the

    defendants ask that we "restate the standards for a preliminary injunction

    to restore clarity to [our] jurisprudence." Brief of Appellants at 46. Of

    course, "a panel of this court cannot overrule, explicitly or implicitly, the

    precedent set by a prior panel of this court. Only the Supreme Court or

    this court sitting en banc can do that." Mentavlos v. Anderson, 249 F.3d

    301, 312 n.4 (4th Cir.), cert. denied, 122 S. Ct. 349 (2001). Moreover,

    because we conclude that the preliminary injunction was improperly

    issued under the Blackwelder formulation, we leave a re-examination of

    the Blackwelder approach for another day.

    8
    

    mercial advertising or promotion, misrepresents the nature, character-

    istics, qualities, or geographic origin of his or her or another person's

    goods, services, or commercial activities." 15 U.S.C.A.

    § 1125(a)(1)(B) (West 1998). Thus, a plaintiff asserting a false adver-

    tising claim under the Lanham Act must establish that:

    (1) the defendant made a false or misleading description of

    fact or representation of fact in a commercial advertisement

    about his own or another's product; (2) the misrepresenta-

    tion is material, in that it is likely to influence the purchas-

    ing decision; (3) the misrepresentation actually deceives or

    has the tendency to deceive a substantial segment of its

    audience; (4) the defendant placed the false or misleading

    statement in interstate commerce; and (5) the plaintiff has

    been or is likely to be injured as a result of the misrepresen-

    tation, either by direct diversion of sales or by a lessening

    of goodwill associated with its products.

    Cashmere & Camel Hair Mfrs. Inst. v. Saks Fifth Ave., 284 F.3d 302,

    310-11 (1st Cir.), cert. denied, 71 U.S.L.W. 3163 (U.S. Nov. 4,

    2002); accord IQ Prods. Co. v. Pennzoil Prods. Co., 305 F.3d 368,

    375 (5th Cir. 2002); United Indus. Corp. v. Clorox Co., 140 F.3d

    1175, 1180 (8th Cir. 1998). The only elements in dispute in this case

    are the first and third.

    For liability to arise under the false advertising provisions of the

    Lanham Act, "the contested statement or representation must be either

    false on its face or, although literally true, likely to mislead and to

    confuse consumers given the merchandising context." C.B. Fleet Co.

    v. SmithKline Beecham Consumer Healthcare, L.P., 131 F.3d 430,

    434 (4th Cir. 1997) (internal quotation marks omitted). "Where the

    advertisement is literally false, a violation may be established without

    evidence of consumer deception." Cashmere & Camel Hair Mfrs.,

    284 F.3d at 311; accord Novartis Consumer Health, Inc. v. Johnson

    & Johnson-Merck Consumer Pharm. Co., 290 F.3d 578, 586 (3d Cir.

    2002); C.B. Fleet, 131 F.3d at 434. But if "a plaintiff's theory of

    recovery is premised upon a claim of implied falsehood, a plaintiff

    must demonstrate, by extrinsic evidence, that the challenged [adver-

    tisements] tend to mislead or confuse consumers." Johnson & John-

    son * Merck Consumer Pharm. Co. v. Smithkline Beecham Corp., 960

    9
    

    F.2d 294, 297 (2d Cir. 1992); see Abbott Labs. v. Mead Johnson &

    Co., 971 F.2d 6, 14 (7th Cir. 1992) ("[A] court may find on its own

    that a statement is literally false, but, absent a literal falsehood, may

    find that a statement is impliedly misleading only if presented with

    evidence of actual consumer deception.").

    In Lanham Act cases involving trademark infringement, a pre-

    sumption of irreparable injury is generally applied once the plaintiff

    has demonstrated a likelihood of confusion, the key element in an

    infringement case. See, e.g., Eli Lilly & Co. v. Natural Answers, Inc.,

    233 F.3d 456, 469 (7th Cir. 2000) ("Irreparable harm is generally pre-

    sumed in cases of trademark infringement and dilution."); Genessee

    Brewing Co. v. Stroh Brewing Co., 124 F.3d 137, 142 (2nd Cir. 1997)

    ("In the context of trademark and unfair competition injunctions, the

    requirement of irreparable harm carries no independent weight, as we

    have held that a showing of likelihood of confusion (a requirement of

    both trademark infringement and unfair competition claims) estab-

    lishes irreparable harm."). A similar presumption also appears in

    many Lanham Act false advertising cases, although there seems to be

    some disagreement among the courts as to when the presumption

    should be applied. Compare, e.g., United Indus., 140 F.3d at 1183

    (suggesting that the presumption applies in all Lanham Act cases

    where the plaintiff has established a tendency to deceive), with Ortho

    Pharm. Corp. v. Cosprophar, Inc., 32 F.3d 690, 696 (2nd Cir. 1994)

    (explaining that the presumption of irreparable harm is generally lim-

    ited to cases involving false comparative advertising).

    This court has never spoken directly to the applicability of such a

    presumption of harm in Lanham Act cases.3 Not surprisingly, Scotts

    ____________________________________________________________

    3 District courts within this circuit, however, have discussed or applied

    the presumption. See JTH Tax, Inc. v. H&R Block Eastern Tax Servs.,

    Inc., 128 F. Supp. 2d 926, 948 (E.D. Va. 2001) ("[A] demonstration that

    the competitor's advertising tends to mislead consumers satisfies the

    [Lanham] Act's irreparable harm requirement."), aff'd in part, vacated in

    part, and remanded, No. 01-1353, 2002 WL 27257 (4th Cir. Jan. 10,

    2002); Black & Decker (U.S.) Inc. v. Pro-Tech Power Inc., 26 F. Supp.

    2d 834, 862 (E.D. Va. 1998) ("Courts have explained that a demonstra-

    tion that the competitor's advertising tends to mislead consumers satis-

    fies the Lanham Act's irreparable harm requirement.").

    10
    

    contends that we should endorse the use of the presumption in false

    advertising cases and that we should adopt the presumption in its

    broadest formulation. For their part, the defendants suggest that we

    should follow the approach of the Second Circuit and conclude that

    a presumption of irreparable harm applies, if at all, only to cases

    involving false comparative advertising. We need not, however,

    decide whether and under what circumstances a presumption of irrep-

    arable harm should be applied in false advertising cases. As we will

    explain below, Scotts has failed to make even a prima facie showing

    of consumer confusion, thus precluding application of the presump-

    tion, regardless of how it is formulated.

    B.
    

    As previously noted, the evidence required of a false-advertising

    plaintiff is dependent upon whether the case involves advertising that

    is literally false or advertising that is only impliedly false. If the

    advertising is literally false, no evidence of consumer confusion is

    required. But if the advertising is impliedly false, the plaintiff must

    present extrinsic evidence of consumer confusion.

    "In analyzing whether an advertisement . . . is literally false, a court

    must determine, first, the unambiguous claims made by the advertise-

    ment . . ., and second, whether those claims are false." Novartis, 290

    F.3d at 586. "A literally false message may be either explicit or con-

    veyed by necessary implication when, considering the advertisement

    in its entirety, the audience would recognize the claim as readily as

    if it had been explicitly stated." Id. at 586-87 (internal quotation

    marks omitted).

    Here, the only claim explicitly made on the Vigoro package is that

    the product prevents crabgrass up to four weeks after germination,

    and Scotts concedes that this message, standing alone, is true. Scotts,

    however, contends that the falsity springs not from the text standing

    alone, but from the juxtaposition of the mature crabgrass illustration

    directly above this text, which creates what Scotts describes as a "uni-

    tary graphic." According to Scotts, the placement of the mature crab-

    grass illustration so close to the phrase "prevents crabgrass up to 4

    weeks after germination" necessarily leads consumers to believe that

    the picture shows what crabgrass looks like four weeks after germina-

    11
    

    tion. That message, in turn, leads consumers to believe that if they

    applied Vigoro to crabgrass that looked like the illustration, the prod-

    uct would kill the crabgrass, or at least prevent it from spreading. At

    four weeks after germination, however, crabgrass does not look like

    the illustration, but instead appears as small shoots. Thus, Scotts con-

    tends that the unitary graphic conveys the literally false message that

    Vigoro is capable of killing mature crabgrass.

    The district court concluded that the Vigoro packaging made no lit-

    erally false claims, a factual finding that is entitled to deference. See

    C.B. Fleet, 131 F.3d at 434 (explaining that literal falsity of an adver-

    tisement is a factual question); Fed. R. Civ. P. 52(a) (requiring district

    court to make specific findings of fact and conclusions of law when

    granting or denying preliminary injunctions and stating that such fac-

    tual findings "shall not be set aside unless clearly erroneous"). Scotts

    does not even acknowledge the district court's factual finding, much

    less articulate why that finding is erroneous. Our own review of the

    record confirms the correctness of the district court's decision on this

    point.

    Preliminarily, the sheer complexity of Scotts' explanation as to

    why this case involves a literal falsity seems to undercut the argu-

    ment. See United Indus., 140 F.3d at 1181 ("The greater the degree

    to which a message relies upon the viewer or consumer to integrate

    its components and draw the apparent conclusion, however, the less

    likely it is that a finding of literal falsity will be supported."). More-

    over, the illustration is teamed with a claim that Vigoro "prevents"

    crabgrass, a word that generally is used in the stopping-from-ever-

    starting sense. See, e.g., American Heritage College Dictionary 1085

    (3d ed. 1997) (giving "[t]o keep from happening" as the first defini-

    tion of "prevent"). As the district court recognized, Vigoro can in fact

    prevent mature crabgrass by stopping the weed before it starts, which

    makes it difficult to see how the message conveyed by the Vigoro

    packaging can be literally false.

    Scotts, however, contends that even though the stopping-crabgrass-

    before-it-starts message would be unobjectionable standing alone, the

    packaging conveys another message that is literally false. Scotts

    points out that while "prevent" is often used in the sense of stopping

    something from happening, it can also mean hindering, impeding, or

    12
    

    eliminating something, or stopping something from existing. And

    according to Scotts, the defendants have exploited this secondary

    meaning of the word "[b]y juxtaposing a picture of mature crabgrass

    with the words `prevents after germination,'" which suggests that

    Vigoro "can stop, retard, and eliminate mature crabgrass once growth

    has occurred." Brief of Appellee at 25. That is,"[t]o say that the prod-

    uct is capable of preventing crabgrass after crabgrass has occurred is

    to say that the product eliminates crabgrass after the fact and after it

    has reached maturity." Brief of Appellee at 26.

    We agree that "prevent" does carry the secondary message to

    which Scotts refers and that the Vigoro packaging conveys the mes-

    sage that Vigoro can stop or eliminate crabgrass once growth has

    occurred. But the packaging states that it can prevent (i.e., eliminate)

    crabgrass up to four weeks after it has emerged, a message which is

    true and which is a far cry from Scotts' assertion that the packaging

    claims that Vigoro eliminates crabgrass after maturity. Scotts' literal

    falsity argument is thus dependent on the claim that the placement of

    the crabgrass illustration so close to the "4 weeks after germination"

    text necessarily conveys to consumers that the illustration is of a crab-

    grass plant four weeks after germination. That argument, however, is

    untenable when the graphic is viewed in context, as it must be. See

    United Indus., 140 F.3d at 1180 (When "assessing whether an adver-

    tisement is literally false, a court must analyze the message conveyed

    within its full context.").

    If the illustration were positioned over text claiming that Vigoro

    kills crabgrass, we might be more sympathetic to Scotts' claim. But

    the graphic is simply one part of a package that focuses primarily on

    controlling pre-emergent crabgrass. The most obvious part of the

    package is the lush-lawn photo upon which the product is referred to

    (in very large letters) as "Ultra Turf Pre-Emergent Crabgrass Con-

    trol." And beside the crabgrass graphic, in the center of the bottom

    third of the package front, is the large-letter statement that Vigoro

    "Stops Crabgrass and Many Other Grassy & Broadleaf Weeds Before

    They Start." Under these circumstances, we simply cannot agree with

    Scotts that the meaning it attaches to the unitary graphic is the one

    necessarily conveyed by the graphic. While it is possible that some

    consumers would interpret the graphic in the manner Scotts suggests,

    it is likewise possible that consumers would understand the illustra-

    13
    

    tion as showing mature crabgrass for identification purposes only, so

    that they can determine whether the weed that is vexing them is crab-

    grass or some other backyard pest. Because the graphic can reason-

    ably be understood as conveying different messages, Scotts' literal

    falsity argument must fail. See Novartis, 290 F.3d at 587 ("[O]nly an

    unambiguous message can be literally false."); United Indus., 140

    F.3d at 1181 ("Commercial claims that are implicit, attenuated, or

    merely suggestive usually cannot fairly be characterized as literally

    false.").4

    C.
    

    Because we cannot conclude that the Vigoro packaging makes any

    literally false claims, the question is whether Scotts can establish that

    the packaging makes any impliedly false claims. See Clorox Co.

    Puerto Rico v. Proctor & Gamble Commercial Co., 228 F.3d 24, 35

    (1st Cir. 2000) ("[A] factfinder might conclude that the message con-

    veyed by a particular advertisement remains so balanced between sev-

    eral plausible meanings that the claim made by the advertisement is

    too uncertain to serve as the basis for a literal falsity claim, though

    even in that case it could still form the basis of a claim that the adver-

    tising is misleading."). As discussed above, a plaintiff asserting an

    implied falsity claim generally must present extrinsic evidence of

    consumer confusion. See id. at 36 ("Unlike the requirements of a

    ____________________________________________________________

    4 Scotts also suggests that the inclusion of the disclaimer shows that the

    message necessarily conveyed by the unitary graphic is literally false.

    According to Scotts, the disclaimer does not provide additional detail

    about or qualify the graphic, but instead "flatly contradicts it. Through

    the disclaimer, Defendants admit that Vigoro cannot do what the graphic

    says-`control mature plants.'" Brief of Appellee at 29. If the graphic

    conveyed a literally or impliedly false claim, then the disclaimer might

    not be sufficient to eliminate the confusion. Cf. Novartis, 290 F.3d at 599

    ("Although we are skeptical whether disclaimers can cure false advertis-

    ing claims (made literally or by necessary implication), they may be able

    to dispel misleading messages implied by a product's name."). But we

    have already rejected Scotts' assertion that the illustration of the mature

    crabgrass plant atop text claiming a limited post-emergent effect conveys

    the message that Vigoro kills mature crabgrass. If that message is not

    conveyed by the graphic itself, it certainly is not conveyed by the graphic

    and the disclaimer in combination.

    14
    

    claim of literal falsity, the plaintiff alleging a misleading advertise-

    ment has the burden of proving that a substantial portion of the audi-

    ence for that advertisement was actually misled."); Johnson &

    Johnson * Merck, 960 F.2d at 297 (explaining that if "a plaintiff's

    theory of recovery is premised upon a claim of implied falsehood, a

    plaintiff must demonstrate, by extrinsic evidence, that the challenged

    [advertisements] tend to mislead or confuse consumers").

    Consumer confusion "is most often proved by consumer survey

    data," Clorox Co., 228 F.3d at 36, but "full-blown consumer surveys

    . . . are not an absolute prerequisite" at the preliminary injunction

    stage, United Indus., 140 F.3d at 1183. Nevertheless, "the movant-

    even at the preliminary injunction stage-must present evidence of

    deception." Johnson & Johnson Vision Care, Inc. v. 1-800 Contacts,

    Inc., 299 F.3d 1242, 1247 (11th Cir. 2002). Accordingly, we now turn

    to the defendants' challenges to Scotts' evidence of consumer confu-

    sion.

    To show consumer confusion, Scotts presented evidence of two

    focus group discussions and the results of a survey of forty consum-

    ers. We consider each type of evidence separately.

    1.
    

    Scotts' focus groups consisted of a small number of Richmond-

    area consumers who owned their homes and performed their own

    lawn care. A moderator led each of the group discussions. Dr.

    Kiecker, Scotts' marketing expert, summarized the results of the

    focus group sessions and concluded that "[m]ost participants felt that

    [the] purpose of the image of the plant on the front of the Vigoro bag

    was to show consumers the type of crabgrass the product would pre-

    vent." J.A. 102. Although none of the participants noticed the dis-

    claimer on his own, Kiecker stated that once the disclaimer was

    pointed out to them, the participants believed that the purpose of the

    disclaimer was to "reverse the impression created by the plant image."

    J.A. 103.

    Scotts asserts that this focus group evidence satisfies its burden of

    showing consumer confusion through extrinsic evidence. The defen-

    dants, however, contend that focus group evidence is inherently

    15
    

    unscientific and thus inadmissible under Rule 702 of the Federal

    Rules of Evidence or Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc.,

    509 U.S. 579 (1993), as evidence of consumer confusion in a false

    advertising case. In the alternative, the defendants contend that even

    if focus group evidence is generally admissible, the focus group evi-

    dence in this case is insufficient to support Scotts' claims.

    We note that the very nature of a focus group seems, to some

    extent, to limit its ability to identify the message an advertisement

    conveys to an individual consumer. As the defendants' expert

    explained, focus groups "are a form of brainstorming where the par-

    ticipants are encouraged to `build on' the thoughts of others." J.A.

    208. Because the participants in a focus group freely voice their opin-

    ions, the opinion of a participant can be shaped by those of the others.

    Thus, a participant who may have derived no false message from an

    advertisement viewed outside the context of the focus group might

    well change his opinion about the message conveyed by the advertise-

    ment after considering the views expressed by the other participants.

    Nevertheless, we need not decide the broader question of the general

    admissibility of focus group evidence, because we agree with the

    defendants that, in this case, the focus group evidence was unreliable

    and cannot be considered probative on the question of whether the

    Vigoro packaging was likely to mislead consumers.

    In our view, the manner in which the focus group discussions were

    conducted prevents the results of those discussions from being con-

    sidered as a reliable indicator of whether the Vigoro packaging con-

    veyed misleading messages to consumers. This lack of reliability

    stems from the fact that the moderators of the groups channeled the

    discussions and led the participants into giving responses favorable to

    Scotts. See Novartis, 290 F.3d at 591 ("A survey is not credible if it

    relies on leading questions which are inherently suggestive and invite

    guessing by those who did not get any clear message at all." (internal

    quotation marks omitted)). The moderators asked highly leading

    questions, often ignored responses that were inconsistent with the

    view that the Vigoro conveyed the message that it could kill mature

    crabgrass, and typically explored in detail only the responses that

    were consistent with this hypothesis. For example, in one of the focus

    groups, a participant named John stated that he did not know what the

    purpose was of the crabgrass illustration on the Vigoro packaging.

    16
    

    The moderator then asked, "if it says prevents crabgrass up to four

    weeks after germination do you think it will kill crabgrass that looks

    like that?" J.A. 613. Some discussion among the participants fol-

    lowed, none of which unambiguously supported Scotts' hypothesis.

    The moderator then asked if any participant knew what crabgrass

    looked like four weeks after germination, to which John responded,

    "I would assume it's just little shoots coming up." J.A. 619. The mod-

    erator responded, apparently to John and in reference to his earlier

    comment: "If you don't know the purpose, again, let's go back to the

    plant." J.A. 619. John immediately changed his tune and said, "This

    is what it would look like up to this point." J.A. 619.

    We believe this example well illustrates the problems with the

    focus group evidence in this case. Initially, no message was conveyed

    to John by the crabgrass illustration on the Vigoro packaging. But in

    a span of time reflected by a mere six pages in the joint appendix,

    John had moved from having no opinion as to the purpose of or mes-

    sage conveyed by the illustration to being convinced that the illustra-

    tion did indeed convey a particular and false message. Thus, the

    manner in which the focus groups were conducted allowed the moder-

    ator to shape the opinions of the participants to mirror Scotts' theory

    of the case and then report those shaped opinions as evidence to sup-

    port Scotts' claim.

    We therefore conclude that the manner in which the focus groups

    were conducted destroyed the objectivity of the discussions, rendering

    the results utterly unreliable on the question of whether the Vigoro

    packaging conveys a false message. See Novartis, 290 F.3d at 591

    ("The evidentiary value of a survey depends on its underlying objec-

    tivity as determined through many factors, such as whether the survey

    is properly filtered to screen out those who got no message from the

    advertisement, whether the questions are directed to the real issues,

    and whether the questions are leading or suggestive." (internal quota-

    tion marks and alteration omitted)). We recognize, of course, that a

    district court's evidentiary rulings are entitled to deference. See, e.g.,

    Supermarket of Marlinton, Inc. v. Meadow Gold Dairies, Inc., 71

    F.3d 119, 126 (4th Cir. 1995). But the deficiencies in the focus group

    evidence are so substantial that we are constrained to conclude that

    the district court abused its discretion by giving the evidence any

    weight. See, e.g., Direx, 952 F.2d at 815 (explaining that an appellate

    17
    

    court may overturn the district court's factual findings if, after

    reviewing the entire record, the appellate court is "left with the defi-

    nite and firm conviction that a mistake has been committed." (internal

    quotation marks omitted)).

    2.
    

    Without the focus group evidence, Scotts' only evidence of con-

    sumer confusion comes from its survey of 40 do-it-yourself lawn care

    consumers. According to Scotts, the survey showed that 92.5% of the

    respondents were misled by the Vigoro packaging, a level of confu-

    sion that would be sufficient to support Scotts' false advertising

    claims. See, e.g., Johnson & Johnson-Merck Consumer Pharm. Co.

    v. Rhone-Poulenc Rorer Pharm., Inc., 19 F.3d 125, 129 (3d Cir.

    1994) (explaining that a false advertising plaintiff must show that

    "there is actual deception or at least a tendency to deceive a substan-

    tial portion of the intended audience"). The defendants, however,

    challenge the admissibility of the survey evidence, arguing that the

    survey is inadmissible because it does not satisfy the standards of reli-

    ability set forth by the Supreme Court in Daubert. The defendants

    also contend that if the survey is admissible, it does not establish any

    level of consumer confusion on the relevant question. Because we

    agree with the latter contention, we will not address the former.

    As previously discussed, the express messages conveyed by the

    Vigoro packaging are literally true. Vigoro prevents crabgrass if it is

    applied up to four weeks after the crabgrass has emerged from the

    soil, a claim that Scotts does not dispute. And to the extent that Vig-

    oro's use of the mature crabgrass plant illustration directly above the

    claim that Vigoro prevents crabgrass up to 4 weeks post-emergence

    sends the message that Vigoro prevents mature crabgrass, that mes-

    sage, as the district court recognized, is literally true. By preventing

    crabgrass from even starting, Vigoro does prevent mature crabgrass.

    The critical question in this case, then, is whether the Vigoro packag-

    ing conveys the message that Vigoro kills mature crabgrass, a mes-

    sage that would be false. The survey, however, simply did not address

    that question.

    The interviewer showed the respondents an empty Vigoro bag

    folded in quarters so that the lower left quadrant (where the crabgrass

    18
    

    illustration was located) was visible and asked: "Based on your

    review of this section of the bag, should this product prevent the

    growth of crabgrass that looks like the crabgrass pictured?" J.A. 119.

    Through the use of the word "prevent," this question suffers from the

    same ambiguity as does the Vigoro packaging itself. That is, we can-

    not tell from this question whether the respondents who answered yes

    believed that Vigoro could prevent mature crabgrass by stopping it

    before it started, or whether they believed that Vigoro could kill if

    applied to established, mature crabgrass.

    Scotts, however, insists that the survey does address the critical

    issue. First, Scotts points out that the survey did not simply ask

    whether Vigoro would prevent crabgrass that looks like the illustra-

    tion, but instead asked whether Vigoro would prevent "the growth" of

    crabgrass that looks like the illustration. According to Scotts, by

    focusing on preventing growth, the question "asks whether the prod-

    uct controls (e.g., stops) `the growth of' the pictured crabgrass. And

    that of course goes to one of the key issues in the case." Brief of

    Appellee at 41-42. We disagree.

    As previously pointed out, the primary and most common meaning

    of "prevent" is "[t]o keep from happening." American Heritage Col-

    lege Dictionary 1085 (3d ed. 1997). Contrary to Scotts' suggestion,

    the inclusion of the phrase "the growth of" does not obliterate or

    transform this meaning-Vigoro can keep the growth of mature crab-

    grass from happening by stopping crabgrass before it has a chance to

    mature. The ambiguity in the survey question comes from the use of

    "prevent," and that ambiguity simply is not cured by adding the

    phrase "the growth of." Therefore, even though more than 90% of the

    respondents answered yes when asked whether Vigoro should "pre-

    vent the growth of crabgrass that looks like the crabgrass pictured,"

    J.A. 119, those responses shed no light on the question that is key to

    Scotts' false advertising claims-whether the Vigoro packaging con-

    veys the message that it can kill mature crabgrass.

    Scotts also argues that the responses to the follow-up "why or why

    not" question provide sufficient evidence of consumer confusion.

    Again we disagree. When asked to explain why they believed that

    Vigoro would prevent crabgrass that looks like the crabgrass pictured,

    many respondents said things like "because the bag says so," J.A.

    19
    

    121; "because that is crabgrass," J.A. 123; because "that is the type

    of [crabgrass] I am familiar with," J.A. 127; "because that is what it

    says it does," J.A. 137; "because it pictures that [crabgrass] so it

    should prevent it," J.A. 145; and "because that is [crabgrass] and this

    is a prevent[ative]," J.A. 155. These responses are just as ambiguous

    as the initial question, and, like the responses to the initial question,

    provide no evidence of consumer confusion on the critical issue.

    There are, however, some explanations that do seem to support

    Scotts' view of the message conveyed by the Vigoro packaging. For

    example, one respondent explained that Vigoro should prevent the

    growth of crabgrass that looks like the illustration "because it says it

    prevents up to 4 [weeks] after germination which would look like

    this." J.A. 119. Other explanations included: "because that is

    c[rab]g[rass] (`pre-emergent')," J.A. 143; "says it prevents [crabgrass]

    up to 4 [weeks] and that looks like a picture of [crabgrass] up to 4

    [weeks]," J.A. 157; "the picture shows what you are trying to kill,"

    J.A. 161; and "photo use[d] should be representative," J.A. 175. But

    even some of these explanations, however, are as ambiguous as the

    initial question. For example, the explanation that "the picture shows

    what you are trying to kill" would be consistent with an understanding

    that the crabgrass illustration is for identification purposes only and

    that Vigoro prevents the pictured crabgrass by stopping it from start-

    ing. While a few of these explanations more unambiguously support

    Scotts' claim, we simply cannot conclude that the relatively small

    number of such explanations establish that a substantial number (or,

    a "not insubstantial number") of consumers are likely to be misled by

    the Vigoro packaging. See Rhone-Poulenc, 19 F.3d at 134 (noting that

    a Lanham Act plaintiff asserting an implied falsehood claim must

    establish that "the advertising tends to deceive or mislead a substan-

    tial portion of the intended audience" (internal quotation marks omit-

    ted)); Johnson & Johnson * Merck, 960 F.2d at 298 (explaining that

    a plaintiff raising a claim of implied falsity must establish "that a not

    insubstantial number of consumers" are likely to be confused or mis-

    led (internal quotation marks omitted)).

    Moreover, the manner in which the survey was conducted creates

    significant questions about its relevance and reliability. The purpose

    of consumer surveys in false advertising cases is to determine the

    message actually conveyed to consumers. But the interviewers con-

    20
    

    ducted the survey in this case in a way that effectively required the

    respondents to express a specific opinion, even if they did not have

    an opinion, by specifically not offering the respondents the opportu-

    nity to give "not sure" as a response. See J.A. 118-19. In addition, the

    survey respondents were given an empty Vigoro bag folded into quar-

    ters so that only the quadrant with the crabgrass illustration was visi-

    ble, thus obscuring the parts of the Vigoro packaging that emphasized

    its focus on stopping crabgrass before it started, and the respondents

    were asked to review only that portion of the bag. The survey thus

    elicited information about the consumer's reaction to an isolated part

    of the packaging, when the relevant issue in a false advertising case

    is the consumer's reaction to the advertisement as a whole and in con-

    text. We believe that these deficiencies in the survey's design, partic-

    ularly when considered in light of the survey's failure to focus on the

    critical question, weaken the relevance and credibility of the survey

    evidence to the point that it sheds no light on the critical question in

    this case. See Johnson & Johnson * Merck, 960 F.2d at 300 ("The

    evidentiary value of a survey's results rests upon the underlying

    objectivity of the survey itself. This objectivity, in turn, depends upon

    many factors, such as whether the survey is properly filtered to screen

    out those who got no message from the advertisement, whether the

    questions are directed to the real issues, and whether the questions are

    leading or suggestive." (internal quotation marks and alterations omit-

    ted)).

    In its order granting the preliminary injunction, the district court

    expressed concerns about the survey evidence, noting that "the results

    of portions of the consumer studies are not entirely helpful or con-

    vincing." J.A. 700 n.7. The court recognized that while 92.5% of the

    respondents

    believed the product would "prevent" the crabgrass pictured

    in the graphic, this number does not necessarily demonstrate

    confusion. The product also indicates that it is a pre-

    emergent. As a result, if it is applied correctly, it will pre-

    vent mature crabgrass like the plant pictured on the package.

    The fact that the vast majority of respondents believe the

    product would "prevent" mature crabgrass, consequently,

    provides little insight.

    21
    

    J.A. 700-01 n.7. Notwithstanding these concerns, the court relied on

    the survey evidence when concluding that Scotts had established a

    likelihood of confusion. As we have explained above, the survey evi-

    dence does not establish consumer confusion, primarily because it

    addresses issues that are not relevant to Scotts' false advertising claim

    and yet fails to address the single question that is relevant to Scotts'

    claims-whether Vigoro kills mature crabgrass. We therefore con-

    clude that the district court abused its discretion by crediting the sur-

    vey evidence.

    D.
    

    Scotts, however, contends that any deficiencies in its consumer

    confusion evidence are irrelevant, because it established that the

    defendants intentionally set out to deceive consumers about Vigoro's

    effect on mature crabgrass. Although this court has not yet addressed

    the question, other circuits have held that, like a finding of literal fal-

    sity, a conclusion that a defendant intended to deceive triggers a pre-

    sumption of consumer confusion that relieves a Lanham Act plaintiff

    of any obligation to present evidence of likely confusion. See Cash-

    mere & Camel Hair Mfrs., 284 F.3d at 316 ("It is well established that

    if there is proof that a defendant intentionally set out to deceive or

    mislead consumers, a presumption arises that customers in fact have

    been deceived."); William H. Morris Co. v. Group W, Inc., 66 F.3d

    255, 258 (9th Cir. 1995) ("If [the defendant] intentionally misled con-

    sumers, we would presume consumers were in fact deceived and [the

    defendant] would have the burden of demonstrating otherwise.");

    Johnson & Johnson * Merck, 960 F.2d at 298 ("[W]here a plaintiff

    adequately demonstrates that a defendant has intentionally set out to

    deceive the public, and the defendant's deliberate conduct in this

    regard is of an egregious nature, a presumption arises that consumers

    are, in fact, being deceived." (internal quotation marks omitted)).

    Scotts contends this intent to deceive is evidenced by the defendants'

    "pattern and practice of misleading consumers," Brief of Appellee at

    20, and by the inclusion of the disclaimer on the Vigoro packaging.

    The disclaimer, which is linked to the graphic by a faint cross sym-

    bol, states that "crabgrass image for illustration only as this product

    is for pre- and early post emergent control and does not control

    mature plants." Scotts argues that "[i]f the graphic conveyed a truthful

    22
    

    message, there would be no reason to `tell' consumers in a nearly-

    invisible footnote that the mature crabgrass depicted . . . is shown for

    `illustration only.' . . . At the very least, the disclaimer . . . reveals a

    significant awareness of a risk that the current graphic conveys a mis-

    leading message." Brief of Appellee at 30-31. Scotts contends that

    counsel for United effectively admitted the intent to deceive at the

    hearing when he stated to the district court that the disclaimer was

    intended, in part, to forestall a legal challenge by Scotts. See J.A. at

    457 ("The factual point of the disclaimer was trying to keep Scotts

    from suing us again."). With regard to the defendants' "pattern and

    practice of misleading consumers," Scotts states that the "Defendants

    have appeared before the same judge three separate times for using

    three strikingly similar versions of the same misleading graphic to

    deceive consumers into believing that Vigoro products can control

    mature crabgrass." Brief of Appellee at 20. Scotts contends that "[o]n

    this record of past deception, it would have defied common sense for

    [the district court] to have insisted upon Scotts providing mounds of

    extrinsic evidence to support its motion." Brief of Appellee at 22.5

    A defendant's intent is a "quintessentially factual question." United

    States v. McKie, 951 F.2d 399, 403 (D.C. Cir. 1991); see Warren v.

    Halstead Indus., Inc., 802 F.2d 746, 751 (4th Cir. 1986) ("Issues of

    intent are included in the factual matters for the trier of fact to dis-

    cern."). The district court, however, did not conclude that the defen-

    ____________________________________________________________

    5 As support for its claim that the defendants' prior conduct gives rise

    to an inference of an intent to deceive, Scotts cites to infringement cases

    where courts have held that a defendant who has previously copied a

    competitor's trademark or trade dress must "keep a safe distance away

    from the margin line," Broderick & Bascom Rope Co. v. Manoff, 41 F.2d

    353, 354 (6th Cir. 1930), such that subsequent design modifications by

    the defendant may still be found to be infringing, even if the same design

    by a "good faith user" would have been acceptable, Service Ideas, Inc.

    v. Traex Corp., 846 F.2d 1118, 1124 (7th Cir. 1988); see also Osem

    Food Indus., Ltd. v. Sherwood Foods, Inc., 917 F.2d 161, 164 n.4 (4th

    Cir. 1990). While there seem to be substantial differences between this

    case and the repeat-infringer cases cited by Scotts, we will assume, with-

    out deciding, that a defendant's history of false advertising could, in a

    proper case, operate to relieve the plaintiff of presenting extrinsic evi-

    dence of consumer confusion created by an impliedly false advertise-

    ment.

    23
    

    dants intended to deceive consumers. The court was, of course, aware

    of the prior actions brought by Scotts, and the court did consider the

    effect of the disclaimer when concluding that the packaging contained

    an implied falsehood. But nothing in the court's opinion suggests that

    the court concluded as a factual matter that the defendants' prior his-

    tory, the disclaimer, or any other evidence demonstrated that the

    defendants intended to deceive consumers, and it is not the function

    of this court to supplement the factual findings made by the district

    court. Moreover, while there is some evidence at this point that could

    perhaps support a finding that the defendants intended to deceive con-

    sumers, the evidence is limited and far from overwhelming.

    As to the disclaimer, we note that the mere fact that the defendants

    recognized the possibility that Scotts might sue does not inexorably

    lead to the conclusion that the defendants believed that the graphic

    was misleading and intended the graphic to deceive consumers. See

    J.A. at 457 (counsel for United explaining that"[s]ometimes, though,

    even when you haven't done anything wrong, you go ahead and you

    do a little bit more to try to prevent somebody from complaining").

    While we do not rule out the possibility that a factfinder might attach

    some significance to a particular disclaimer and the circumstances

    surrounding its implementation when concluding that the defendant

    intended to deceive consumers, the district court did not do so in this

    case.

    As to the defendants' prior conduct, we note that the prior actions

    did not involve the graphic at issue in this case, but instead centered

    on the cartoon "crabgrass buster" logo and a time-line suggesting that

    Scotts' products had no post-emergence effect. The district court in

    the second action did conclude that the time-line was false, but the

    court did not conclude in either the first action or the second action

    that the crabgrass buster logo conveyed a false or misleading mes-

    sage. Instead, through settlement agreements under which it admitted

    no liability, Pursell agreed not to use the crabgrass buster logo, but

    specifically reserved the right to use a graphic claiming post-

    emergence control. And in our view, the graphic at issue in this case

    -a realistic rendering of a mature crabgrass plant-bears little if any

    resemblance to the menacing crabgrass buster logo. Again, a fact-

    finder might draw negative inferences from this evidence, but the dis-

    trict court did not do so here.

    24
    

    Scotts is of course free to make these arguments to the district court

    at the trial on Scotts' request for a permanent injunction, and nothing

    in this opinion should be understood as suggesting any particular out-

    come should the issue be raised. But because the district court did not

    make any factual findings with regard to whether the defendants

    intended to deceive consumers, it would be improper for this court on

    this record to apply a presumption of consumer confusion so as to

    excuse the deficiencies we have identified in Scotts' evidence.

    Which brings us to this point. We have concluded that the Vigoro

    packaging is not literally false and that Scotts can prevail on its

    implied falsity claim only by presenting extrinsic evidence of likely

    consumer confusion. And because we have rejected Scotts' evidence

    of consumer confusion (and its various arguments as to why no

    extrinsic evidence was required), it follows that the district court erred

    by applying the presumption of irreparable harm, a presumption that

    was dependent on Scotts' establishing consumer confusion. We there-

    fore proceed to consider whether the preliminary injunction can be

    sustained without reference to the presumption.

    III.
    

    As previously discussed, the critical issue in a preliminary injunc-

    tion case involves the balancing of the harms likely to be suffered by

    the parties. If the plaintiff has made a strong showing that it will suf-

    fer irreparable harm if the injunction is denied, the court must balance

    the likelihood of that harm against the likelihood of harm that would

    be suffered by the defendant. The plaintiff must make a "clear show-

    ing of irreparable harm . . ., and the required irreparable harm must

    be neither remote nor speculative, but actual and imminent." Direx,

    952 F.2d at 812 (internal quotation marks omitted).

    Scotts contends that it will suffer irreparable injury if a preliminary

    injunction is not issued because it faces the risk of a permanent loss

    of customers and goodwill. First, Scotts asserts that the misleading

    statements on the Vigoro packaging will cause customers to believe

    that Vigoro is the superior product and will thus decrease Scotts' sales

    and perhaps even tarnish its reputation. Second, Scotts contends that

    by duping customers into believing that there is a product that will rid

    their yards of mature crabgrass, the defendants "run the risk of driving

    25
    

    consumers from the do-it-yourself lawn care market altogether," an

    event that would disproportionately affect Scotts, the market leader.

    Brief of Appellee at 34.

    These arguments fall far short of establishing an actual and immi-

    nent injury in this case. The record establishes that between now and

    January 2003 (when the trial is scheduled on Scotts' claims), sales of

    crabgrass control products are virtually non-existent. Sales will begin

    increasing in February, peaking in March and April. Moreover, Vig-

    oro products are sold exclusively at Home Depot and currently are not

    even on the shelves in most of those stores. Therefore, even if the

    Vigoro packaging were misleading, the denial of a preliminary

    injunction would cause very little harm to Scotts. A permanent

    injunction after the trial in January, should the district court conclude

    an injunction is warranted, would be more than sufficient to protect

    Scotts' market share and reputation, because the injunction would

    take effect before the crabgrass-preventative season begins in earnest

    in the spring. We therefore conclude that, without the presumption of

    irreparable harm that was applied by the district court, Scotts has

    failed to establish that, without a preliminary injunction, it will suffer

    irreparable harm that is "neither remote nor speculative, but actual

    and imminent." Direx, 952 F.2d at 812.

    For their part, the defendants contend that they will suffer irrepara-

    ble harm from the granting of the injunction, pointing to the expense

    of creating new packaging and covering over the offending graphic

    on existing stock, as well as the harm to their reputation that would

    be caused by a determination that they engaged in false advertising.

    The district court largely dismissed these concerns, stating that "[a]ny

    harm that would result from a preliminary injunction would only be

    the result of the Defendants' own allegedly deceptive advertising,"

    J.A. 701, a fact that "should be considered in balancing the harms."

    J.A. 702.

    We agree with the defendants that the district court gave imper-

    missibly short shrift to the question of the harm that would be visited

    upon the defendants. The harm to a defendant, particularly a defen-

    dant in a false advertising case, could almost always be described as

    of the defendant's own making. If self-made harm is given substan-

    tially less weight, as it was by the district court in this case, then the

    26
    

    balance of the harms will almost always favor the plaintiff, thus trans-

    forming a preliminary injunction from an extraordinary remedy into

    a routine occurrence. And when the purpose behind the requirement

    that the court balance the harms is recognized, it becomes apparent

    that it is error to dismiss as self-inflicted the harms that might be suf-

    fered by a defendant if an injunction were to issue.

    "[G]ranting a preliminary injunction requires that a district court,

    acting on an incomplete record, order a party to act, or refrain from

    acting, in a certain way. `The danger of a mistake in this setting is

    substantial.'" Hughes Network Sys., Inc. v. Interdigital Communica-

    tions Corp., 17 F.3d 691, 693 (4th Cir. 1994) (internal alteration omit-

    ted) (quoting American Hosp. Supply Corp. v. Hospital Prods. Ltd.,

    780 F.2d 589, 593 (7th Cir. 1986)). The entire preliminary injunction

    inquiry, and particularly the requirement that the district court care-

    fully balance the harms to the parties, is intended to ensure that the

    district court "choose[s] the course of action that will minimize the

    costs of being mistaken." American Hosp. Supply Corp. 780 F.2d at

    593 (7th Cir. 1986). Thus, while cases frequently speak in the short-

    hand of considering the harm to the plaintiff if the injunction is denied

    and the harm to the defendant if the injunction is granted, the real

    issue in this regard is the degree of harm that will be suffered by the

    plaintiff or the defendant if the injunction is improperly granted or

    denied:

    If the judge grants the preliminary injunction to a plaintiff

    who it later turns out is not entitled to any judicial relief-

    whose legal rights have not been violated-the judge com-

    mits a mistake whose gravity is measured by the irreparable

    harm, if any, that the injunction causes to the defendant

    while it is in effect. If the judge denies the preliminary

    injunction to a plaintiff who it later turns out is entitled to

    judicial relief, the judge commits a mistake whose gravity

    is measured by the irreparable harm, if any, that the denial

    of the preliminary injunction does to the plaintiff.

    American Hospital Supply Corp., 780 F.2d at 593. By dismissing out-

    right or giving less weight to the harm that would be suffered by a

    defendant on the grounds that the harm was self-inflicted, a court is

    effectively considering the harms that would flow from a properly

    27
    

    entered injunction (that is, an injunction entered against a defendant

    who would go on to lose) rather than considering the harms that

    would flow from an injunction entered in error (an injunction entered

    against a defendant who would go on to win). We therefore believe

    that it is error for a district court to conclude that any harm that would

    be suffered by a defendant was self-inflicted and thus entitled to

    lesser weight in the balancing-of-the-harms portion of the preliminary

    injunction calculus.

    But in this case, any error by the district court in its consideration

    of the harm that would be suffered by the defendants is of little conse-

    quence, because we conclude that the defendants would suffer only

    minimal harm. While the defendants would incur the monetary costs

    of complying with the injunction by creating new packaging or plac-

    ing stickers to cover the offending graphic on the existing packaging,

    they would be protected by the substantial bond posted by Scotts. See

    Hoechst Diafoil Co. v. Nan Ya Plastics, Inc., 174 F.3d 411, 421 n.3

    (4th Cir. 1999) ("In fixing the amount of an injunction bond, the dis-

    trict court should be guided by the purpose underlying Rule 65(c),

    which is to provide a mechanism for reimbursing an enjoined party

    for harm it suffers as a result of an improvidently issued injunction

    or restraining order."); Gateway Eastern Ry. Co. v. Terminal R.R.

    Ass'n of St. Louis, 35 F.3d 1134, 1140 (7th Cir. 1994) ("In deciding

    whether to grant a preliminary injunction, the court must also con-

    sider any irreparable harm that the defendant might suffer from the

    injunction-harm that would not be either cured by the defendant's

    ultimately prevailing in the trial on the merits or fully compensated

    by the injunction bond. . . ." (internal quotation marks omitted)). And

    while the defendants' concern about the effect of an injunction is

    legitimate, we believe that this concern is significantly lessened by

    the fact that Home Depot is the defendants' only customer. If a pre-

    liminary injunction were entered and the defendants were exonerated

    after trial, the defendants' task in alleviating any concerns would be

    less onerous (and more likely to succeed) with only one customer in

    need of updating as to the outcome of the litigation.

    We therefore conclude that relatively little harm would befall either

    side if the preliminary injunction issue were improperly decided

    against it. Because the balance of the harms does not tip toward either

    party, "the probability of success begins to assume real significance,

    28
    

    and interim relief is more likely to require a clear showing of a likeli-

    hood of success." Direx, 952 F.2d at 808 (internal quotation marks

    omitted); see Blackwelder, 550 F.2d at 195 n.3.

    We have previously determined that the Vigoro packaging makes

    no literally false claims and that Scotts must therefore present evi-

    dence of consumer confusion to succeed on its false advertising

    claims. Because the evidence presented by Scotts is insufficient to

    show a likelihood of consumer confusion, Scotts has therefore failed

    to show a likelihood of success on the merits. This factor, then, coun-

    sels against the entry of a preliminary injunction.

    The final Blackwelder factor to be considered is whether the public

    interest would be served by the injunction. As the district court noted,

    "there is a strong public interest in the prevention of misleading

    advertisements." Novartis, 290 F.3d at 597 (internal quotation marks

    and alteration omitted). But because we have determined that Scotts

    has not, at least at this juncture, established a likelihood of success on

    its false advertising claim, we cannot conclude that public interest

    weighs in favor of the issuance of an injunction.

    Thus, after reviewing the record and considering the Blackwelder

    factors, we conclude that a preliminary injunction is not warranted in

    this case, a conclusion that flows directly from our determination that

    Scotts was required to present extrinsic evidence showing a likelihood

    of consumer confusion and that the focus group and survey evidence

    submitted by Scotts was not reliable or probative of the critical ques-

    tion in this case. The district court's error in accepting this evidence

    as sufficient led it to erroneously apply a presumption of irreparable

    harm, which in turn led to an erroneous consideration and application

    of the preliminary injunction standards. We therefore conclude that

    the district court abused its discretion by granting Scotts' request for

    a preliminary injunction. See, e.g., Quince Orchard Valley Citizens

    Ass'n, Inc. v. Hodel, 872 F.2d 75, 78 (4th Cir. 1989) ("A district court

    abuses its discretion by applying an incorrect preliminary injunction

    standard, by resting its decision on a clearly erroneous finding of a

    material fact, or by misapprehending the law with respect to underly-

    ing issues in litigation." (internal quotation marks omitted)). Accord-

    ingly, we vacate the injunction and remand for proceedings on Scotts'

    request for a permanent injunction and other relief. Given the sea-

    29
    

    sonal nature of the products at issue here, we encourage the district

    court to make every effort to resolve this case as expeditiously as pos-

    sible.

    VACATED AND REMANDED
    

    30
    

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