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    Lin v. INS
    Filed January 24, 2001
    
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE THIRD CIRCUIT
    
    No. 00-1849
    
    LI WU LIN,
    
           Petitioner
    
    v.
    
    IMMIGRATION & NATURALIZATION SER VICE,
    
           Respondent
    
    Petition for Review of a Decision
    of the Immigration and Naturalization Service
    (A 72 492 341)
    
    Argued December 5, 2000
    
    BEFORE: BARRY, COWEN and
    WOOD,*Circuit Judges
    
    (Filed January 24, 2001)
    
    
    
    _________________________________________________________________
    * Honorable Harlington Wood, Jr., United States Circuit Judge, U.S.
    Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit, sitting by designation.
    
    
           Theodore N. Cox, Esq. (Argued)
           401 Broadway, Suite 1802
           New York, NY 10013
    
            Counsel for Petitioner
    
           Linda S. Wendtland, Esq.
           Terri J. Scadron, Esq.
           John M. McAdams, Jr., Esq.
           Robbin K. Blaya, Esq. (Argued)
           United States Department of Justice
           Office of Immigration Litigation
           P.O. Box 878
           Ben Franklin Station
           Washington, DC 20044
    
            Counsel for Respondent
    
    OPINION OF THE COURT
    
    COWEN, Circuit Judge.
    
    Li Wu Lin, once a student in the People's Republic of
    China, participated prominently in four pr o-democracy
    protests in the weeks and days before the massacre at
    Tiananmen Square. Fearing persecution in the wake of the
    government's crackdown, Lin fled his country and
    eventually arrived in the United States wher e he sought
    both political asylum under S 208(a) of the Immigration and
    Nationality Act, 8 U.S.C. S 1158(a), and withholding of
    deportation under S 243(h) of the Act, 8 U.S.C. S 1253(h).
    The immigration judge and the Board of Immigration
    Appeals have denied him relief under both pr ovisions,
    clearing the way for his deportation. Lin now brings this
    petition for review.
    
    I
    
    In the spring of 1989 Lin was fifteen-years old and a
    student at a middle school in the Fujian Province.
    Sympathetic to the student movement then gaining
    momentum, Lin joined in marches that pr otested the
    
                                    2
    
    
    government's corruption, undemocratic rule, and disregard
    for human rights.
    
    The first demonstration that Lin joined occurr ed on May
    18th, 1989, and involved about 1,000 students who
    gathered in front of a county gover nment building. Because
    Lin is unusually tall and, as he puts it, "very active," he
    was placed at the front of the march and given a protest
    sign to hold and a headband to wear that demanded
    freedom for China. He explained that a few of his teachers
    helped organize the demonstration and participated in the
    march, but others were afraid of getting involved.
    
    On May 25th Lin again joined the head of the assembled
    crowd, held a sign, and marched to the county government
    building. This time when they arrived at the building, the
    police and army blocked the entrance. Lin and the others
    tried to push through the barricade to occupy the building,
    but the officers and soldiers pushed the students back,
    beating them with electric batons. Lin said he shielded
    himself with his arms as he retreated. A few days later Lin
    headed another parade on May 30th, and he went to a
    fourth on June 2nd when he traveled with others to a large
    demonstration in front of the city gover nment building in
    Fuzhou, a large city in the province.
    
    Two days after this last demonstration, the pr otest
    movement in China ended with the Tiananmen Square
    massacre in Beijing on June 4th, 1989. Accor ding to every
    major American newspaper, Chinese soldiers accompanied
    by 25-ton tanks drove the student protesters from
    Tiananmen Square, fired on them with automatic weapons,
    and crushed others to death under the tanks. Newspapers
    reported that at least 700 people were killed. See, e.g.,
    Daniel Southerland, Death in Tiananmen;W itnesses
    Describe the Devasting Assault, Washington Post, June 5,
    1989, at A1.
    
    Although he did not live in Beijing and had not
    participated in any protests there, Lin was worried about
    the sharp change in the government's r esponse to the
    protests. After an uncle informed him that the police were
    seeking one of his relatives for her participation in protests,
    he feared that they would soon come after him too, so he
    
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    traveled to an aunt's home in another town about twenty
    minutes away by bus.
    
    Six days after the massacre in Beijing, on June 10th, two
    police officers and a brigade leader in fact came to Lin's
    home. Because he was not there, they spoke to his mother
    (Lin's father is deceased) and gave her a subpoena
    demanding that Lin appear immediately for interr ogation at
    the Security Section, Public Security Bureau. In his written
    personal statement Lin said that "the officers told my
    mother I was involved in the democracy movement and they
    demanded to know my location. When she didn't tell, they
    demanded she find me. . . . They said I would be arrested
    and punished strictly if I was caught, including
    imprisonment." App. at 126.
    
    Although political refugees are rar ely able, amid the
    confusion of flight, to amass physical evidence verifying the
    validity of their asylum claims, see Senathirajah v. INS, 157
    F.3d 210, 216-17 (3d Cir. 1998), in this case Lin's mother
    managed to mail him the subpoena she received. A copy of
    the subpoena, with a translation, has been included in the
    record, and all of the information on it is consistent with
    Lin's story. The immigration judge did request that the
    government check the age or authenticity of the document,
    but the government failed to take any action.
    
    Despite the police's delivery of the subpoena, Lin never
    reported for interrogation. Instead he moved from his aunt's
    house to a much more distant location thr ee hours away,
    where he stayed for roughly two-and-a-half years while his
    family gathered the money to pay a smuggler to take him
    out of the country. During his wait, Lin said he worked
    briefly in a bakery for a few months, but then quit because
    he was afraid he would attract the government's attention.
    
    Officials returned to Lin's home five more times to look
    for him. The first time they returned, on June 20th, 1989,
    Lin said that the officers took his mother to the Changle
    County Security Bureau, detained her for half a day, and
    threatened her when she would not reveal her son's
    location. Lin said they "asked her many times about me
    and threatened to jail her." App. at 126. The officers
    returned in early July of 1989, at the end of 1989, on May
    
                                    4
    
    
    1, 1990, and in January of 1991. Lin explained,"They
    always asked for my location, said I had participated in the
    student movement, and continued to say I would be in
    serious trouble if caught." App. at 127.
    
    Lin learned that one of his classmates, Lin Bin, whom he
    knew well, was arrested and sentenced to one year of
    detention and forced labor. In Mar ch of 1990 three other
    classmates were arrested, beaten, and sentenced to
    between one and one-and-a-half years of detention and
    forced labor. Lin testified that these classmates "all had
    participated in the same events that I did, and all were
    sentenced for their student movement activities." App. at
    127.
    
    Once the smugglers supplied him with a fake passport
    from Singapore, Lin left China on January 25th, 1992, and
    traveled by airplane first to Sen Jen (phonetic spelling) and
    then Hong Kong where he stayed for about a week. After a
    brief stopover in Singapore, he moved again to somewhere
    in former Czechoslovakia, where he lived with another
    person from China for about eight months. Fr om there he
    took a train to a country whose identity he never learned
    and boarded a plane for the United States, arriving on
    October 31st, 1992.
    
    Lin appeared before an immigration judge for two
    evidentiary hearings--one on May 18th, 1993, and the
    second on September 19th, 1993. The judge rendered a
    brief oral opinion at the second hearing denying Lin the
    relief he sought. About six-and-a-half years later--a delay
    the government's lawyer attributed to the agency's backlog
    --the Board rejected Lin's appeal. Collectively, the total
    time that this case has been pending now spans seven-and-
    a-half years. This delay is unconscionable. As other courts
    have remarked, many problems are cr eated when asylum
    cases are so protracted. Salameda v. INS, 70 F.3d 447, 449
    (7th Cir. 1995).
    
    In its two-page opinion, the Board found Lin's testimony
    credible and consistent, but the Board nevertheless
    concluded that Lin did not have a well-founded fear of
    persecution in China. The Board reasoned, as did the
    immigration judge, that since Lin admitted in his testimony
    
                                    5
    
    
    that he joined the other demonstrators in attempting to
    occupy a county government building during the second
    demonstration, the subpoena merely showed that the
    Chinese government was interested in enforcing a neutral
    law of general applicability, namely the law against
    trespass.
    
    II
    
    We have jurisdiction under S 106(a)(1) of the Immigration
    and Nationality Act, 8 U.S.C. S 1105a(a)(1), as amended by
    S 309 of the Illegal Immigration Refor m and Immigrant
    Responsibility Act of 1996, Pub. L. 104-208, 110 Stat. 3009
    (Sept. 30, 1996). Because this case does not tur n on any
    novel legal interpretation by the Board and instead involves
    the Board's fact-finding and application of established legal
    standards, we will reverse the Boar d's decision to deny
    asylum and withholding of deportation "only if a reasonable
    fact-finder would have to conclude that the r equisite fear of
    persecution existed." Chang v. INS, 119 F .3d 1055, 1060
    (3d Cir. 1997) (citing INS v. Elias-Zacarias, 502 U.S. 478,
    480, 112 S.Ct. 812 (1992)).
    
    Lin has sought two different types of r elief--political
    asylum and withholding of deportation. To qualify for
    political asylum, the first type of relief, an alien must be a
    "refugee" within the meaning of 8 U.S.C.S 1158(a). Under
    that provision a refugee includes those who are unable or
    unwilling to return to their country of nationality "because
    of persecution or a well-founded fear of persecution on
    account of race, religion, nationality, membership in a
    particular social group or political opinion." Chang, 119
    F.3d at 1059 (quoting 8 U.S.C. S 1101(42)(A)). In this case
    Lin seeks to establish that he has a well-founded fear of
    persecution because of his political opinions. Br eaking this
    standard into parts, we can say that Lin must show that (1)
    the government pursued him because of his political
    opinions, (2) the action that the government would take
    against him is sufficiently serious to constitute persecution,
    and (3) he has a "well-founded fear" that the persecution
    will in fact occur. See, e.g., Chang, 119 F.3d at 1067 n.9.
    
    For the government's action to constitute persecution, it
    must amount to more than "generally harsh conditions
    
                                    6
    
    
    shared by many other persons," but "does include threats
    to life, confinement, torture, and economic r estrictions so
    severe that they constitute a real thr eat to life or freedom."
    Chang, 119 F.3d at 1066 (citations omitted). The
    requirement that his fear be "well-founded" includes both a
    subjective and objective component. No one has ever
    questioned that Lin holds a genuine subjective fear of
    persecution, so our focus is on the objective standard--i.e.,
    was his subjective fear of persecution "supported by
    objective evidence that persecution is a reasonable
    possibility." Chang, 119 F.3d at 1066 (citing INS v. Cardoza-
    Fonseca, 480 U.S. 421, 430, 440, 107 S.Ct. 1207, 1212,
    1217-18 (1987)). This standard "does not r equire a showing
    that persecution is more likely than not. Fear can be well-
    founded even `when there is less than 50% chance of the
    occurrence taking place.' " Chang, 119 F.3d at 1066
    (quoting Cardoza-Fonseca, 480 U.S. at 431, 107 S.Ct. at
    1213).
    
    If an alien satisfies these standards for political asylum,
    then the Attorney General has discretion to decide whether
    to grant asylum or not. Cardoza-Fonseca , 480 U.S. at 428
    n.5, 107 S.Ct. at 1211 n. 5. By contrast, if an alien
    qualifies for withholding of deportation, the second type of
    relief at issue in this appeal, then the Attor ney General is
    prohibited from deporting the alien to the country where
    the persecution will occur. 480 U.S. at 429 n.6, 107 S.Ct.
    at 1212 n.6.
    
    To qualify for mandatory relief under withholding of
    deportation, Lin must show a clear probability that upon
    his return to China "his life or fr eedom would be
    threatened" because of his political opinions. Chang, 119
    F.3d at 1066. Put differently, the standard is that he must
    show that it is more likely than not that he will face
    persecution if he is deported. Cardoza-Fonseca, 480 U.S. at
    430, 107 S.Ct. at 1212.
    
    In Chang we held that an alien can be entitled to both
    asylum and withholding of deportation based on a fear of
    prosecution under a law of general applicability. "[T]he
    memory of Hitler's atrocities and of the legal system he
    corrupted to serve his purposes . . . are still too fresh for us
    to suppose that physical persecution may not bear the nihil
    
                                    7
    
    
    obstat of a `recognized judicial system.' " Chang, 119 F.3d
    at 1060-61 (quoting Sovich v. Esperdy, 319 F.2d 21, 28 (2d
    Cir. 1963)). We concluded that if the prosecution is
    motivated by one of the enumerated factors, such as
    political opinion, and if the punishment under the law is
    sufficiently serious to constitute persecution, then the
    prosecution under the law of general applicability can
    justify asylum or withholding of deportation. Chang, 119
    F.3d at 1061.
    
    III
    
    We conclude that Lin has satisfied both the standards for
    political asylum and those for withholding of deportation.
    The Board reasoned in our case that while Lin is credible--
    a conclusion in keeping with our decisions in Senathirajah
    and Balasubramanrim v. INS, 143 F.3d 157 (3d Cir. 1998)--
    he does not face persecution. Instead, the Boar d
    speculated, his testimony only established that the Chinese
    police sought him for trespass. But the Boar d's view of
    events is wholly unsupported by the recor d. Nowhere is
    there any evidence that the Chinese police sought Lin
    because of his trespass as opposed to his political
    expression. Indeed, for all the evidence r evealed, the
    government was not even aware that Lin committed
    trespass as part of his participation in mar ches. Lin
    specifically asserted that when the police first came to his
    house, they said that they sought him because he was
    "involved in the democracy movement." The police said
    nothing about trespass. Lin also specifically stated that his
    classmates were beaten, incarcerated, and subjected to
    forced labor "for their student movement activities."
    
    More fundamentally, Lin's subpoena was issued six days
    after the Chinese government used tanks and machine
    guns to kill at least 700 hundred and possibly more
    nonviolent protesters. It is difficult to believe that in the
    wake of political repression on that scale that the
    government was acting as a disinterested enforcer of
    neutral laws when it demanded that Lin appear for
    interrogation. We do not understand why the government
    would send two police officers and a brigade leader if it did
    not believe more was at stake than a fifteen-year old's
    
                                    8
    
    
    trespass. Nor does it make sense that if simple trespass
    was at issue, the police would returnfive more times over
    the course of the next year and a half. That is a long time
    to pursue a middle-school student's trespass. Nor would it
    make sense that they would take Lin's mother to the
    security bureau and interrogate her for half a day about his
    whereabouts. Nor is it very plausible that the government
    would subject Lin's classmates to the punishment they
    received if trespassing was foremost on the government's
    mind.
    
    The idea that the subpoena was not aimed at Lin's
    political expression also flies in the face of what journalists
    reported shortly after the massacre in T iananmen Square.
    On June 9th, 1989--the day before the police brought the
    subpoena to Lin's mother--the Wall Str eet Journal reported
    that the Chinese government "launch[ed] a campaign of
    arrests against student and other demonstrators." The
    article said that Premier Li Peng appear ed on television for
    the first time since the massacre and was"shown
    congratulating troops on behalf of the gover nment and the
    Communist Party." The article continued, "Government
    television announcements demanded that student
    demonstration leaders and free labor-union organizers turn
    themselves in or face arrest." James P . Sterba, Campaign is
    Begun to Arrest Protesters as Signs Gr ow that Hardliners
    Prevail, Wall Street Jour nal, June 9, 1989. See also
    Nicholas D. Kristof, China's Premier Reappears; Army
    Seems to Tighten Grip, New York T imes, June 9, 1989;
    Nicholas D. Kristof, Crackdown in China; A Student Leader
    Turns Himself In, June 17, 1989 ("The[Chinese]
    Government today reported a new series of arrests around
    the nation of those involved in the democracy movement.").
    Even a passing familiarity with China's history in the
    twentieth century would remind the Boar d that the Chinese
    government has frequently used for ce and coercion to
    suppress political dissent. The Cultural Revolution occurred
    as recently as 1966 to 1976--within Lin's own life. Severe
    political repression is not a remote part of China's history.
    
    Indeed, Assistant Secretary Harold Koh's r ecent
    testimony in March of 2000 before a House subcommittee
    indicated, "In the weeks leading up to both June 4th, the
    
                                    9
    
    
    10th anniversary of the Tiananmen massacr e, and October
    1st, the 50th anniversary of the founding of the People's
    Republic, the Government moved against political
    dissidents across the country, detaining and formally
    arresting scores of activists nationwide and thwarting any
    attempts to use the anniversaries as opportunities for
    protest." Testimony before the Subcommittee on
    International Operations and Human Rights, U.S. House of
    Representatives, Washington D.C., Mar ch 8, 2000,
    http://www.state.gov/www/policy_remarks/2000. In the
    brief Lin submitted in 1993 to the Board, he points out that
    the State Department's 1992 Country Report stated that
    20-30% of the protesters detained for participating in the
    pro-democracy protests were still imprisoned at that time,
    and the number of people incarcerated could be in the
    thousands. App. at 7. Other reports put the numbers even
    higher. Id.
    
    When the government's lawyer skeptically questioned Lin
    about why he remembered the exact day he left China--
    January 25th, 1989--Lin testified:
    
           I escaped out of my country. I was so scared of the
           arrest by the Chinese Public Security Bur eau officers,
           so I could still remember it.
    
           Q. Okay.
    
           A. I was so scared.
    
           Q. Thank you.
    
    App. at 98.
    
    On appeal the government defends the Boar d's decision
    by invoking a one-page letter that the State Department
    submitted to the immigration judge. But the thrust of that
    letter was to reject Lin's credibility--something the Board
    expressly did not do. Because the Board never cited the
    State Department's letter in its opinion and could not have
    relied on it with much logical consistency, we question to
    what extent the Board's decision can be upheld based on
    what that letter said. Perhaps the gover nment's theory is
    that the Board implicitly rejected Lin's credibility to the
    extent that it conflicted with what was said in the letter.
    But the Board of course never identified any part of Lin's
    
                                    10
    
    
    testimony that it rejected as not credible, and so we have
    no way to evaluate the validity of its reasons for
    purportedly rejecting part of his story. Despite these defects
    in relying on the State Department's letter , however, we will
    address the contents of that letter because wefind its
    reasoning as unconvincing as the Board's.
    
    One reason that the State Department's letter r ejected
    Lin's account as not credible was that he stayed in China
    "three years" after the subpoena was issued, yet he did "not
    explain clearly how he managed, assuming the police were
    after him, to avoid arrest by staying at the home of a
    relative who could have been found easily by local security
    authorities." App. at 130.
    
    Initially, we observe that Lin stayed in China for two-and-
    a-half years, not three as the letter said, and there are only
    the most fleeting references in the r ecord about where or
    with whom he stayed during those years. We also want to
    emphasize that no one ever asked him how he avoided the
    authorities. And Lin did volunteer that he tried to escape
    detection by moving three hours away, and added that he
    quit working in a bakery after a few months because he
    was afraid he would attract the government's attention. But
    the most fundamental point here, of course, is that the
    authorities could have easily decided that pursuing Lin, a
    fifteen-year old, was not worth the resour ces it would take
    to discover him three hours distant and in hiding. China is
    a big country.
    
    While the State Department's letter acknowledged that
    the agency did "not have independent knowledge about this
    applicant," it concluded that Lin's "description of the
    vigorous police efforts against him and his schoolmates is
    inconsistent with the situation as we understand it." App.
    130. Specifically, the letter said that the "demonstrations
    [i]n Fuzhou were far less dramatic than those in Beijing,
    and the crackdown in their aftermath was similarly mild."
    Id. The only evidence capable of evaluation that the letter
    cited in support of these claims is an article written by two
    American college professors who had brought a class of
    their students to China some time before the T iananmen
    Square demonstrations.
    
                                    11
    
    
    Before we discuss this article, we think it is important to
    emphasize that the Board's decisions cannot be sustained
    simply by invoking the State Department's authority. We
    are expected to conduct review of the Boar d's decisions,
    and that procedural safeguard would be destroyed if the
    Board could justify its decisions simply by invoking
    assertions by the State Department that themselves provide
    no means for evaluating their validity. See Galina v. INS,
    213 F.3d 955, 958-59 (7th Cir. 2000). The Board cannot
    hide behind the State Department's letterhead. We turn
    therefore to the college professor's article and its value in
    assessing the legitimacy of Lin's claims.
    
    The first problem with the article is that it is difficult to
    discern how close the authors were to the specific county
    where Lin lived and whether they had any first-hand
    knowledge about the demonstrations there or the police
    response to it. Their article does observe that Fujian
    Province, the region they discuss, is the size of Nicaragua
    or the former Czechoslovakia and had in 1989 a population
    of 26 million people. Obviously they were not speaking from
    personal experience about all the demonstrations in a
    region that size. And there are r easons to doubt how well
    their observations generalize. While they described as
    "benign" the police response to the pr otests that they saw,
    and add that a month before the massacr e, the Provincial
    Party Committee had "praised [the students'] patriotism,"
    app. at 134-35, the authors do not mention any of the
    protests Lin described, protests that the Board accepted as
    having occurred and that indeed formed the basis of its
    decision.
    
    The Board's own reasoning relied on the fact that the
    police sought Lin because he tried to press past police and
    soldiers to occupy a government building. And Lin
    explained that during that clash, the authorities beat
    protesters with electric batons, confrontations that the
    professors showed no awareness of while describing the
    police response as benign. The authors also maintained
    that the demonstrations in the region "r eached their peak"
    on May 18th, which was the date Lin joined in his first
    march. These omissions and errors r einforce the
    impression that the professors' on-the-gr ound observations
    
                                    12
    
    
    may not have been as accurate as those by someone like
    Lin who lived all his life in the area.
    
    But the most important defect in the government's
    reliance on this article is that the benign police responses
    reported by the authors all occurred befor e the massacre in
    Tiananmen Square. Events before the massacre are not the
    appropriate standard for judging the political fallout
    afterwards. It is well understood that the Chinese
    government's decision to use force against the protesters in
    Beijing was the product of a power struggle within the
    government and that those favoring less fr eedom emerged
    in control. This shift in leadership inevitably prompted a
    more repressive approach by the government. Even the
    authors of the article acknowledge that befor e the
    massacre, "Fujian officials were r eluctant to take tough
    measures against demonstrators, perhaps because they
    could not predict the outcome of the crisis." Id. at 134. The
    authors also indicated that the situation was much more
    serious after the massacre. Even in the location where the
    authors were, "there was a realistic acceptance that further
    demonstrations would be dangerous. We only witnessed one
    more, on 6 June." Id. at 136. The article adds that the
    university in Fuzhou closed two weeks early, and while a
    short time later national and provincial education
    commissions "demanded that schools make students return
    to class," many parents were afraid to let their children
    return. App. at 137. The authors observed, "By 18 June,
    Fuzhou was utterly quiet." Id.
    
    At one point the article does remark, "A few students
    were questioned by the police, but we hear d of no arrests."
    App. at 142. But there is no reason to think that two
    American college professors--who were busily shepherding
    a class of students--were especially well informed about
    whom the police sought, particularly in a region with 26
    million inhabitants in an area the size of for mer
    Czechoslovakia. The Chinese government did not make
    these college professors privy to their enfor cement plans.
    Lin testified credibly that the police served him with a
    subpoena six days after the massacre in Beijing, and he
    even supplied the subpoena to the immigration judge. He
    also testified that he learned that four of his classmates
    
                                    13
    
    
    were arrested and punished for their participation in
    protests. Significantly, Lin said that at least three of those
    arrests occurred in March of 1990, a date well after the
    article was written and almost a year after the massacre.
    
    The article also acknowledged that the Chinese
    government was keenly aware of public r elations and did
    try to manipulate foreigners who were visiting. The authors
    commented that when the evening news showed footage of
    two of the American students walking in a mar ch with
    Chinese students, the professors received a call rebuking
    them even before the broadcast was over , and the police
    refused to extend any student's visa beyond the end of the
    term. And once the massacre occurr ed, with its sea-change
    in the government's response, the pr ofessors explained that
    they declined to attend a banquet because other for eigners
    who had done so in other cities were filmed and televised as
    supporters of Beijing. It is also significant that we are not
    presented with any evidence vouching for the quality of the
    scholarship in this article.
    
    We think Judge Posner's remarks in Galina about the
    Board's reliance on one of the State Department's country
    reports apply equally here: "The country report is evidence
    and sometimes the only evidence available, but the Board
    should treat it with a healthy skepticism, rather than, as is
    its tendency, as Holy Writ." Galina , 213 F.3d at 959.
    Finally, the article and Lin's account are actually consistent
    in many respects. Both report that fr equent demonstrations
    occurred, and the article also confir ms Lin's claim that the
    police had access to videotapes of the demonstrations. They
    also agree that the government's r esponse was not as
    severe as in Beijing. But much as Galina  cautioned that a
    country report saying that human rights wer e "generally
    respected" did not categorically rule out an alien's claims of
    persecution, id., so too the fact that the government did not
    kill hundreds of people where Lin lived does not mean that
    the government took no repressive action there. The
    Board's performance in this case was less than it should
    have been, a problem that, as Judge Posner has remarked,
    appears to occur too often. See Galina, 213 F.3d at 958
    (collecting cases). This court has itself rejected the Board's
    credibility judgments in two published opinions,
    Balasubramanrim and Senathirajah.
    
                                    14
    
    
    At oral argument the government maintained that a year
    and a half of incarceration and forced labor for a fifteen-
    year old who voiced opposition to the government is not
    sufficiently severe punishment to qualify as persecution.
    We emphatically disagree. That is a very long sentence for
    simply voicing opposition to the government. If in Chang a
    one-year or possibly longer sentence was sever e enough to
    qualify as persecution for an adult who violated China's exit
    laws based on his political beliefs, see 119 F.3d at 1066-67,
    we think it follows that the year-and-a-half and possibly
    longer sentence that Lin faces also constitutes persecution.
    We also think it is worth pointing out that Lin has in
    addition broken China's law by fleeing the country and
    faces the same prosecution for that offense as the petitioner
    in Chang. And unlike Chang, ther e can be no dispute that
    Lin fled because of his political beliefs.
    
    IV
    
    We hold that Lin has satisfied the standar ds for both
    political asylum and withholding of deportation. For the
    foregoing reasons, the Board's or der of March 10, 2000, will
    be reversed and remanded for further pr oceedings
    consistent with this opinion.
    
    A True Copy:
    Teste:
    
           Clerk of the United States Court of Appeals
           for the Third Circuit
    
                                    15

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